Isu tinoitisa tsvakiridzo yemisika yakazvimirira pamusoro pezvakasiyana siyana zvepasi rose uye tine mukurumbira wekuvimbika, kuvimbika, kusununguka uye kuvimbika nevatengi muzvikamu zvemigodhi, simbi nefetereza.
CRU Consulting inopa ruzivo uye runoshanda zano rekuzadzisa zvinodiwa nevatengi vedu uye vanobatana navo.Netiweki yedu yakakura, kunzwisisa kwakadzama kwemusika wezvigadzirwa uye kurangwa kwekuongorora kunotibvumira kubatsira vatengi vedu mukuita sarudzo.
Chikwata chedu chekubvunza chine shungu nekugadzirisa matambudziko uye kuvaka hukama hwenguva refu nevatengi vedu.Tsvaga zvimwe nezvezvikwata zviri pedyo newe.
Wedzera kushanda zvakanaka, kuwedzera purofiti, kuderedza nguva - wedzera yako cheni yekugovera nerubatsiro rwechikwata chedu chakazvitsaurira chenyanzvi.
CRU Zviitiko zvinotambira indasitiri-inotungamira bhizinesi uye tekinoroji zviitiko zvemisika yezvinhu zvepasirese.Ruzivo rwedu rwemaindasitiri atinoshandira, akasanganiswa nehukama hwedu hwakavimbika nemusika, anotibvumira kupa hurongwa hwakakosha zvichienderana nemisoro inounzwa nevatungamiriri vepfungwa muindasitiri yedu.
Panyaya huru dzekusimudzira, tinokupa maonero akafara.Mukurumbira wedu sesangano rakazvimirira uye risina rusarura zvinoreva kuti unogona kuvimba neruzivo rwedu, data uye mazano emamiriro ekunze.Vese vanobatana muchikamu chekugovera zvinhu vanoita basa rakakosha munzira yekuburitsa zero.Isu tinogona kukubatsira iwe kuzadzisa zvibodzwa zvako zvekusimudzira, kubva pakuongorora mutemo uye kudzikiswa kwekuburitsa kune yakachena shanduko yesimba uye hupfumi hwakatenderera huri kukura.
Kuchinja mamiriro emamiriro ekunze uye hurongwa hwekutonga kunoda tsigiro yakasimba yekuongorora sarudzo.Kuvapo kwedu kwepasirese uye ruzivo rwenzvimbo inovimbisa kuti tinopa izwi rine simba uye rakavimbika, chero kwaunenge uri.Mafungiro edu, kuraira uye yemhando yepamusoro data ichakubatsira iwe kuita sarudzo dzehunyanzvi dzebhizinesi kuzadzisa zvinangwa zvako zvekusimudzira.
Shanduko mumisika yemari, kugadzira uye tekinoroji zvichabatsira mukuburitsa zero, asi ivo vanokanganiswawo nemitemo yehurumende.Kubva pakukubatsira kuti unzwisise kuti maitirwo emitemo aya anokukanganisa sei, kusvika kufanotaura mitengo yekabhoni, kufungidzira kuzvidira kabhoni kubviswa, kuburitsa mabhenji, uye kuongorora matekinoroji ekudzikisa kabhoni, CRU Sustainability inokupa mufananidzo mukuru.
Shanduko yesimba rakachena inoisa zvinodiwa zvitsva pamuenzaniso wekushanda wekambani.Kutora pane yedu yakakura data uye ruzivo rweindasitiri, CRU Sustainability inopa yakadzama ongororo yeramangwana resimba rinodzokororwa, kubva kumhepo uye solar kusvika kugirinhi hydrogen uye kuchengetedza.Isu tinogona zvakare kupindura mibvunzo yako nezve mota dzemagetsi, bhatiri simbi, mbishi kudiwa uye mutengo maonero.
Nzvimbo yezvakatipoteredza, yemagariro uye hutongi (ESG) iri kukurumidza kuchinja.Kushanda zvakanaka kwezvinhu uye kudzokorodza zviri kuramba zvichikosha.Manetiweki edu uye kugona kutsvagisa kwenzvimbo, kwakasanganiswa neruzivo rwakadzama rwemusika, zvichakubatsira iwe kufamba mumisika yakaoma yechipiri uye kunzwisisa kukonzeresa kwemaitiro akasimba ekugadzira.Kubva pazvidzidzo kusvika pakuronga mamiriro ezvinhu, tinokutsigira mukugadzirisa matambudziko uye tinokubatsira kuti uenderane nehupfumi hwedenderedzwa.
Mitengo yemitengo yeCRU yakavakirwa panzwisiso yedu yakadzama yezvakakosha zvemusika wekutengesa, kushanda kwese rekutengesa cheni, uye yedu yakakura kunzwisisa kwemusika uye kugona kuongorora.Kubva patakavambwa muna 1969, takaisa mari muhunyanzvi hwekutsvagisa uye nzira yakasimba uye yakajeka, kusanganisira mitengo.
Verenga zvinyorwa zvedu zvehunyanzvi zvazvino, dzidza nezvebasa redu kubva muzvidzidzo, kana tsvaga nezve anouya webinars uye maworkshop.
Kubva 2015, kuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana kwepasirese kuri kuwedzera.Chii chakakurudzira izvi?Izvi zvichakanganisa sei kutengeserana kwesimbi pasi rose?Uye izvi zvinorevei kune ramangwana revatengesi nevatengesi kunze kwenyika?
Rising Waves of Protectionism Matanho edziviriro ekutengeserana enyika ari kungotsausa zvinhu kunze kwenyika kune zvinodhura, kukwidza mitengo yepamba uye kupa imwe dziviriro kune vanogadzira nyika.Tichishandisa muenzaniso weUS neChina, ongororo yedu inoratidza kuti kunyangwe mushure mekutangwa kwezviyero zvekutengeserana, mwero weUS kunze kwenyika uye mwero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina hauna kusiyana kubva pane zvinotarisirwa, zvichipihwa mamiriro emusika wesimbi wemumba weimwe neimwe. nyika.
Mhedziso yese ndeyekuti "simbi inogona uye ichawana imba."Nyika dzinounza kunze kwenyika dzichange dzichida simbi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika kuti ienderane nezvinodiwa zvemumba, zvichienderana nekukwikwidza mutengo uye, mune dzimwe nguva, kugona kuburitsa mamwe mamakisi, hapana anokanganiswa nematanho ekutengeserana.
Ongororo yedu inoratidza kuti mumakore mashanu anotevera, sezvo misika yemumba yeChina inovandudza, kutengeserana kwesimbi kunofanirwa kuderera kubva pakakwirira muna 2016, kunyanya nekuda kwekudzikira kweChina kunze kwenyika, asi kunofanira kuramba kuri pamusoro pemazinga a2013.Maererano neCRU dhatabhesi, pamusoro pe100 kutengeserana nyaya dzakaiswa mumakore ekupedzisira e2;nepo vatengesi vakuru vese kunze kwenyika vaive vavariro huru, nhamba huru yenyaya dzekutengeserana dzaipesana neChina.
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti nzvimbo chete yemutengesi mukuru wesimbi inowedzera mukana wekutengesa mhosva kune nyika, pasinei nezvikonzero zvinokonzera nyaya yacho.
Zvinogona kuonekwa kubva patafura kuti ruzhinji rwemakesi ekutengeserana ndeezvigadzirwa zvekutengesa zvinopisa-zvakatenderedzwa senge rebar uye inopisa-yakakungurutswa coil, nepo mashoma machesi ari epamusoro-akawedzera zvigadzirwa senge inotonhora-yakakungurutswa coil uye coated sheet.Kunyange zvazvo nhamba dzeplate nepombi isina musono dzakamira pachena panyaya iyi, dzinotaridza mamiriro ezvinhu epamusoro-soro mumaindasitiri aya.Asi ndezvipi mhedzisiro yezviyero zviri pamusoro?Vanokanganisa sei mafambiro ekutengeserana?
Chii chiri kufambisa kukura kwekudzivirira?Chimwe chezvikonzero zvikuru zvinofambisa kusimbiswa kwekuchengetedzwa kwekutengeserana mumakore maviri apfuura kwave kuwedzera kweChina kunze kwenyika kubva 2013. Sezvakaratidzwa mumufananidzo uri pasi apa, kubva ikozvino, kukura kwenyika inotengeswa kunze kwenyika inotungamirirwa zvachose neChina, uye chikamu cheChina chinotengeswa kunze kwenyika mukugadzirwa kwesimbi kwemukati kwakakwira kusvika padanho repamusoro.
Pakutanga, kunyanya muna 2014, kukura kweChina kunze kwenyika hakuna kukonzera matambudziko enyika: misika yesimbi yeUnited States yakanga yakasimba uye nyika yakafara kugamuchira kunze kwenyika, asi misika yesimbi mune dzimwe nyika yakaita zvakanaka.Mamiriro ezvinhu akachinja muna 2015. Kudiwa kwepasi rose kwesimbi kwakadonha neanopfuura 2%, kunyanya muhafu yechipiri ye2015, kudiwa mumusika weChina wesimbi kwakadonha zvakanyanya, uye purofiti yeindasitiri yesimbi yakawira pasi zvakanyanya.Ongororo yemitengo yeCRU inoratidza kuti mutengo wesimbi kunze kwenyika uri pedyo nemitengo inochinja (ona chati iri papeji rinotevera).
Izvi pachazvo hazvisi zvisina musoro, sezvo makambani esimbi eChinese ari kutarisa kudonha, uye netsanangudzo yakasimba yeTemu 1, izvi hazvisi hazvo "kurasa" simbi pamusika wepasirese, sezvo mitengo yemumba yaivewo yakaderera panguva iyoyo.Zvakadaro, zvinhu izvi zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinokuvadza indasitiri yesimbi kune dzimwe nyika, sezvo dzimwe nyika dzisingakwanise kugamuchira huwandu hwezvinhu zviripo zvichipihwa mamiriro emusika wadzo.
Muchikamu chechipiri chegore ra2015, China yakavhara 60Mt kugadzirwa kwayo nekuda kwemamiriro ezvinhu akaomarara, asi mwero wekuderera, ukuru hweChina senyika huru yekugadzira simbi, uye kurwira kwemukati kwechikamu chemusika pakati pezviyo zvemukati zvemukati uye hombe dzakabatanidzwa simbi dzakachinja kumanikidza. kuvhara zvivakwa zvekugadzira kunze kwenyika.Nekuda kweizvozvo, huwandu hwenyaya dzekutengesa hwakatanga kuwedzera, kunyanya kurwisa China.
Kukanganisa kwekutengeserana kwesimbi pakati peUS neChina kungangopararira kune dzimwe nyika.Chati iri kuruboshwe inoratidza kutengwa kweUS kubva 2011 uye purofiti yezita reindasitiri yesimbi yenyika zvichibva paruzivo rweCRU rwemitengo uye mafambiro emitengo.
Chokutanga pane zvose, zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti, sezvinoratidzwa mu scatterplot kurudyi, kune hukama hwakasimba pakati pezinga rekutengesa kunze uye simba remusika wemumba weU.Izvi zvinosimbiswa neCRU kuongororwa kwekutengesa kwesimbi kuyerera, izvo zvinoratidza kuti kutengeserana kwesimbi pakati penyika mbiri kunotungamirirwa nezvinhu zvitatu zvinokosha.Izvi zvinosanganisira:
Chero cheizvi zvinhu zvinogona kukurudzira kutengeserana kwesimbi pakati penyika chero nguva, uye mukuita izvo zvinokonzeresa zvingango chinja kakawanda.
Tinoona kuti kubva mukupera kwegore ra2013 kusvika mugore rose ra2014, apo misika yeAmerica yakatanga kukunda mimwe misika, yakakurudzira kutengwa kwekunze uye kutengwa kwese kwakakwira kusvika padanho repamusoro.Saizvozvowo, kutengesa kunze kwenyika kwakatanga kuderera sezvo chikamu cheUnited States, kufanana nedzimwe nyika dzakawanda, chakawedzera muhafu yechipiri ye2015. Kubatsira kwekambani yesimbi yeUnited States kwakaramba kusina simba kusvikira pakutanga kwe2016, uye ikozvino kutenderera kwekutengeserana kwekutengeserana kwakakonzerwa ne nguva isingaperi yekubatsira kwakaderera.Zviito izvi zvakatotanga kukanganisa mafambiro ekutengeserana sezvo mitero yakazotemerwa zvinhu zvinobva kune dzimwe nyika.Zvakadaro, zvakakosha kuti ticherechedze kuti kunyange hazvo zvinhu zvinotengwa kunze kwenyika kuUS parizvino zvakanyanya kuomera vamwe vanotenga kunze kwenyika, kusanganisira China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, neTurkey, kutengwa kwese munyika hakuna kudzikira pane zvaitarisirwa.Level yaive pakati pezvaitarisirwa.renji, yakapihwa simba razvino remusika wepamba isati yasvika 2014 boom.Zvikuru, kusimba kwemusika wepamusha weChina, huwandu hwese hwekutengesa kunze kwenyika hweChina parizvino huri mukati mehuwandu hunotarisirwa (chinyorwa chisina kuratidzwa), zvichiratidza kuti kuitwa kwematanho ekutengeserana hakuna kukanganisa zvakanyanya pakugona kwayo kana kuda kuendesa kunze.Saka izvi zvinorevei?
Izvi zvinoratidza kuti, zvisinei nemitero yakasiyana-siyana uye zvirambidzo pakupinzwa kunze kwenyika zvinhu kubva kuChina nedzimwe nyika kupinda muUnited States, izvi hazvina kudzikisa mwero waitarisirwa wekutenga kunze kwenyika, kana mwero unotarisirwa wekutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina.Izvi zvinodaro nekuti, semuenzaniso, mazinga eUS ekunze uye mazinga eChina ekunze ane hukama nezvimwe zvakakosha zvakatsanangurwa pamusoro uye hazvisi pasi pezvirambidzo zvekutengeserana kunze kwezvirambidzo zvekunze kana zvirambidzo zvakaoma.
Muna Kurume 2002, hurumende yeUS yakaunza Section 201 tariffs uye panguva imwe cheteyo yakakwidza mutero wekutengesa kunze kwenyika simbi munyika dzakawanda kusvika kune yakakwirira kwazvo, iyo inogona kunzi yakakomba kutengeserana kurambidzwa.Kutengeswa kunze kwenyika kwakadzikira nezvikamu makumi matatu kubva muzana pakati pa2001 na2003, asi kunyangwe zvakadaro, zvinogona kupokana kuti kuderera kwakawanda kwakanangana nekudzikira kwakaitika mumamiriro emusika wemuUS akatevera.Kunyange zvazvo mitero yakanga iripo, kunze kwenyika kwakashanduka sezvaitarisirwa kunyika dzisina mutero (semuenzaniso, Canada, Mexico, Turkey), asi nyika dzakakanganiswa nemitengo dzakaramba dzichipa zvimwe zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, iyo mari yakakwirira yakatumira US simbi mitengo yakakwirira.izvo zvingangomuka.Section 201 tariffs yakazoraswa muna 2003 nekuti yakaonekwa sekutyora zvisungo zveUS kuWTO, uye mushure mekunge European Union yatyisidzira kutsiva.Zvadaro, kutengeswa kwekunze kwakawedzera, asi maererano nekuvandudzwa kwakasimba mumamiriro emusika.
Izvi zvinorevei kune general trade flows?Sezvatotaurwa pamusoro apa, chiyero chiripo chekutengeswa kweUS hachina kuderera pane zvingatarisirwa maererano nezvinodiwa zvemumba, asi mamiriro ezvinhu munyika dzinotengesa achinja.Zvakaoma kuziva hwaro hwekuenzanisa, asi huwandu hweUS kubva kunze kwenyika kutanga kwa2012 hwakada kufanana nekutanga 2017. Kuenzanisa kwenyika dzevatengesi pamusoro penguva mbiri inoratidzwa pazasi:
Kunyange zvisiri izvo, tafura inoratidza kuti kwakabva kunze kwenyika kuUS kwachinja mumakore mashoma apfuura.Parizvino kune zvimwe zvinhu zvinouya kumahombekombe eUS kubva kuJapan, Brazil, Turkey, neCanada, nepo zvinhu zvishoma zvichibva kuChina, Korea, Vietnam, uye, zvinonakidza, Mexico (ona kuti chidimbu chinobva kuMexico chinogona kuve nemafungiro kune kusawirirana kwazvino. pakati peUS neUS).Mexico) uye chishuwo chekutonga kwaTrump kutaurirana zvakare mazwi eNAFTA).
Kwandiri, izvi zvinoreva kuti madhiraivha makuru ekutengeserana - kukwikwidza kwemitengo, kusimba kwemisika yemumba, uye kusimba kwemisika yekuenda - inoramba yakakosha sekare.Nokudaro, pasi peimwe mamiriro ezvinhu akabatanidzwa neaya masimba ekufambisa, kune chiyero chechisikigo chekutengesa kunze uye kunze kwenyika, uye chete zvirambidzo zvakanyanyisa zvekutengeserana kana kukanganisa kukuru kwemusika kunogona kuvhiringidza kana kuishandura kune chero ipi zvayo.
Kune nyika dzinotengesa kunze simbi, izvi zvinoreva mukuita kuti "simbi inogona uye inogara ichiwana imba."Ongororo iri pamusoro inoratidza kuti kune nyika dzinopinza simbi dzakaita seUnited States, zvirambidzo zvekutengeserana zvinogona kungokanganisa zvishoma chikamu chese chezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, asi kubva pamaonero emutengesi, zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinozoenda kune "inotevera yakanaka sarudzo".Kutaura zvazviri, "chechipiri chepamusoro" zvinoreva kutengesa kunze kwenyika kunodhura, izvo zvingakwidza mitengo yepamba uye kupa imwe dziviriro kune vanogadzira simbi munyika inodhura yepamusoro2, kunyange zvazvo kukwikwidzana kwemari kunoramba kwakafanana.Nekudaro, nekufamba kwenguva, aya mamiriro anogona kunge aine zvakanyanya kuoneka maitiro ekugadzirisa.Panguva imwe cheteyo, kukwikwidzana kwemitengo kunogona kudzikira sezvo vagadziri vasina kurudziro shoma yekudzikisa mitengo sezvo mitengo inokwira.Pamusoro pezvo, kukwira kwemitengo yesimbi kuchaderedza kukwikwidzana kweindasitiri yekugadzira, uye kunze kwekunge zvipingamupinyi zvekutengeserana zvikaiswa pamwe chete neketani yese yekukosha kwesimbi, kudiwa kwemumba kunogona kudonha sekushandiswa kwesimbi kune dzimwe nyika.
Kutarisa kumberi Saka izvi zvinorevei kune kutengeserana kwenyika?Sezvatataura, pane zvinhu zvitatu zvakakosha zvekutengeserana kwenyika - kukwikwidzana kwemari, simba remusika wepamba, uye chinzvimbo mumusika wekuenda - izvo zvine simba guru pakutengeserana pakati penyika.Isu tinonzwawo kuti, nekukura kwayo, China iri pakati pegakava pamusoro pekutengeserana kwepasi rose nemitengo yesimbi.Asi chii chatingataure pamusoro pezvinhu izvi zvekutengeserana equation mumakore mashanu anotevera?
Chekutanga, divi rekuruboshwe rechati riri pamusoro rinoratidza maonero eCRU pamusoro pesimba nekushandiswa kweChina kusvika 2021. Tine tarisiro yekuti China ichasvika padanho rayo rekuvharisa, izvo zvinofanirwa kuwedzera kushandiswa kwehunyanzvi kubva pazvino 70-75% kusvika 85% zvichibva pane yedu. simbi inoda kufanotaura.Sezvo chimiro chemusika chiri nani, mamiriro emusika wepamba (kureva, kuita purofiti) achavandudzawo, uye maChinese simbi anogaya achave nerubatsiro rushoma rwekutengesa kunze.Ongororo yedu inoratidza kuti kutengesa kunze kwenyika kweChina kunogona kudonha kusvika ku <70 metric tons kubva pa 110 metric tons muna 2015. Pasi rose, sezvakaratidzwa muchati kurudyi, tinotenda kuti kudiwa kwesimbi kuchawedzera mumakore mashanu anotevera uye se mhedzisiro "misika yekuenda" inovandudza uye inotanga kuwandisa kunze kwenyika.Nekudaro, isu hatitarisire chero misiyano yakakura mukushanda pakati penyika uye mambure emhedzisiro pakufamba kwekutengeserana kunofanirwa kuve kudiki.Ongororo uchishandisa CRU simbi mutengo modhi inoratidza dzimwe shanduko mukukwikwidza kwemitengo, asi haina kukwana kukanganisa zvakanyanya kuyerera kwekutengeserana pasi rose.Nekuda kweizvozvo, isu tinotarisira kuti kutengeserana kuderera kubva pazvichangoburwa, zvakanyanya nekuda kwekudzikira kunze kwenyika kubva kuChina, asi kuramba kuri pamusoro pemazinga a2013.
CRU's yakasarudzika sevhisi mhedzisiro yeruzivo rwemusika rwakadzama uye hukama hwepedyo nevatengi vedu.Takamirira mhinduro yako.
Nguva yekutumira: Jan-25-2023