Ongororo yemusika wesimbi munaAugust, semazuva e31, kunyange zvazvo mutengo wesimbi une zvishoma zvishoma panguva iyo, asi nguva yakawanda mumamiriro ekushanda kwekuvhunduka kuderera, simbi inoumbwa nemutengo indekisi yakawira 89 points, shinda uye waya yakawa. 97 uye 88 mapoinzi, yepakati uye gobvu ndiro, inopisa yakakungurutswa mitengo yakadonha 103, 132, inotonhora yakakungurutswa mitengo yakadzikama.62% yemutengo wesimbi yakasimuka 6 US madhora, coke composite price index yakawedzera 6 mapoinzi, simbi dzakaraswa mitengo dzakadonha 48 mapoinzi, kubva paavhareji mutengo poindi, composite simbi mitengo, inopisa yakakungurutswa uye inotonhora ndiro yakawedzera 1, 32 uye 113 mapoinzi, shinda, waya uye ndiro yakadonha 47, 44 uye 17 mapoinzi zvichiteerana.Zvinhu zvakapedzwa zvakanga zvisina simba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa, uye mafuta emafuta akanga akasimba kupfuura zvaitarisirwa.Nekudaro, mumushumo wemwedzi wapfuura, zvakare yakataurwa zvakajeka kuti kudzika kwegwaro rekurambidza kugadzirwa ndiyo hwaro hwekudzokororwa, uye zvinodikanwa kudzivirira mabhizinesi kubva kudzikamisa kugadzirwa.Tichitarisira musika wesimbi munaSeptember, zvigayo zvesimbi zvave zvichidzora kugadzirwa, mitengo yesimbi iri nyore kukwira uye yakaoma kudonha, uye mafuta emafuta ari nyore kudonha uye akaoma kukwira.
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Mumusika simbi muna August, hazvina musoro kutaura kuti pasinei kugadzirwa kudzora mutemo, mumamiriro ezvinhu echinyakare off-mwaka kudiwa kuderera, simbi zvigayo zvingada kusarudza kuchengetedza kugadzirwa mazinga, asi akarambawo kuderedza kugadzirwa, zvichiguma. musimbi chigayo purofiti akadonha kubva 64,94% kusvika 51.08%, simbi zvigayo zvinogona kunzi vakanonga sesame akarasika manwiwa, vamwe vangasatombotora sesame.
Kunyangwe kuchengetedzwa kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi kwakadzora kudzvanywa kwemari yemuno kune imwe nhanho, yakakuvadza zvido zveindasitiri nemabhizinesi, uye pakupedzisira yakakuvadza zvido zvenyika (kubva mukusanzwisisika kusundira kumusoro kwemutengo wesimbi ore).
Tichitarisira kumusika wesimbi munaGunyana, mitengo yesimbi ichine kudzvanywa kwedariro, kunyanya mu:
Yekutanga ndeyekumanikidzwa kwekupa, kubva kune data remubatanidzwa wesimbi, avhareji zuva nezuva kubuda kwesimbi yakanyungudutswa pakati uye pakupera kwaNyamavhuvhu yaive 2.456 miriyoni matani, uye kubuda kwesimbi yakanyungudutswa muvhiki yekupedzisira yekupera kwemwedzi. haina kuderera, iyo iri padanho repamusoro, ichiisa kudzvanywa kwekutengesa pamusika pakati peSeptember.
Yechipiri idzvinyiriro yekuda, avhareji yemazuva ese yekuchinja kwezvinhu zvekuvaka muna Nyamavhuvhu ingangoita 145,000 matani, guta guru rezvivakwa, zvivakwa uye kuvaka kutsva zvichiri kudhonza pakuburitswa kwekuda munaGunyana, kunyangwe kudiwa kwemwaka kuchave ne kumwe kusunungurwa, asi simba rose harina kukwana, dzvinyiriro ichiripo.Panyaya yezvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika, musiyano wemutengo pakati pemusha nekunze wakawedzera kuderera, uye kudiwa kwemhiri kwemakungwa kwadzikira, izvo zvinozotungamira kune zvisina kunanga uye zvakananga kunze kwenyika zvigadzirwa zvesimbi zvinodonha zvakanyanya.
Mukuwedzera, mafuta ekutanga achazarura danho repamutemo rekuderera munaSeptember, uye mutengo wesimbi unogona kuumba imwe nhanho yekukwevera.
MunaSeptember, kunyange kana mutengo wesimbi ukadonha, nzvimbo yacho ishoma, kutanga, ikozvino simbi yesimbi iriwo hafu yemakambani purofiti, uye kunyange kana pane purofiti, hazvina basa, simbi akadonha 50 kusvika 100 yuan/ton, purofiti simbi zvigayo, anogona kudzokera anenge 30%, panguva iyoyo, hapana chikonzero kudzikamisa kugadzirwa, simbi zvigayo zvichaitawo kushingaira kuderedza kugadzirwa, kuita kupiwa uye kudiwa rebalancing, uye mutengo kugadziridzwa.
Tichitarisa kumusika wesimbi munaGunyana, zvinhu zvikuru zvinoita kuti zvive nyore kuti mitengo yesimbi idzoke:
Kutanga, macro manzwiro akagadziriswa.Tarisa uone iyo macro diffusion index yeGuosen Securities muvhiki yaNyamavhuvhu 25, iyo yakawedzera kwemavhiki maviri akateedzana, zvichiratidza kuti hupfumi hwenyika hwawedzera, kunyanya mushure mekumisikidzwa kwemwaka, uye huri kuramba huchikwira, izvo zviri nani kupfuura nhoroondo yeavhareji. , uye inoratidza kuti kuvandudzwa kwehupfumi kwakanaka.Musi waNyamavhuvhu 29, chikamu chechishanu cheStanding Committee ye14th National People's Congress yakaongorora Chirevo cheThe State Council pamusoro peKuitwa kweBudget kubva pakutanga kwegore rino musi wa28, uye yakajekesa kuti chimwe chezvishanu zvakakosha. mabasa emari mudanho rinotevera nderokudzivirira nekudzikisa njodzi dzezvikwereti zvehurumende.Hurumende yepakati inoshingairira kutsigira hurumende dzenharaunda mukugadzirisa njodzi dzezvikwereti zvakavanzwa, inokurudzira hurumende dzenzvimbo kuti dzibatanidze marudzi ese emari, midziyo, zviwanikwa uye akasiyana siyana anotsigira marongero nematanho, anotarisisa maguta nemataundi kuti vawedzere basa ravo, kugadzirisa nemazvo chikwereti chakavanzika chiripo, gadzirisa chimiro chezwi, kuderedza mutoro wemubereko, uye zvishoma nezvishoma kuderedza njodzi dzezvikwereti.Mukuwedzera, mutemo wekucherechedza dzimba uye kusaziva zvikwereti zvakavhurwa, uye panogona kuva nekufamba kukuru mune ramangwana, izvo zvinoderedzawo kudzvinyirira.
Chechipiri, simbi idiki rebound mune iyi wave yezvinhu, pane nzvimbo yekugadzirisa.Kucherekedza iyo Mandarin commodity index, yakadzokororwa kubva ku165.72 pakupera kwaMay kusvika 189.14 muna Nyamavhuvhu 30, kudzokororwa kwe14.1%, iyo thread 10 kontrakiti yakadzokororwa kubva ku3388 pakupera kwaMay kusvika 3717 pa30, rebound ye9.7%, zvinhu zvishoma zvakaonekwawo zvakapetwa kaviri musika.Kana iwe uchingotarisa kune ako ega zvakakosha, izvo zvakakosha zveshinda hazvina kushata, uye kune indasitiri mutemo (kugona kugadzira, kuburitsa kaviri kutonga), panofanirwa kuve nenzvimbo yekugadzirisa.
Chechitatu, kudiwa kwesimbi kunotarisirwa kutora mwaka munaGunyana.Kubva pane simbi yemubatanidzwa data yekutarisa, Nyamavhuvhu crude simbi kugadzirwa kunogona kusadonha asi kuwedzera, zvinofungidzirwa kuti avhareji yemazuva ese kugadzirwa kana anenge 2.95 miriyoni matani, uye sampuli yekuverenga yesimbi yemubatanidzwa statistics ichawedzera ne330,000 matani, zvichiratidza kuti simbi isina kuchena. kushandiswa muna Nyamavhuvhu muna Chikunguru kwakawedzera neinenge 10.5% kumashure, zvichiri kugona kuchengetedza nezve 10% gore-pagore kukura, uye kudiwa hakuna kudonha.MunaSeptember, nekudonha kwekushisa, kuvakwazve shure kwemafashamo, kukurumidza kweprojekti, nezvimwewo, kudiwa kunotarisirwa kuwedzera panguva imwe chete uye mwedzi pamwedzi.
Maererano nekuongorora kwezana remakore rekuvaka, kudiwa kwepasi kweindasitiri yekuvaka: simende yakabuda yemabhizimisi e250 yaiva 5.629 mamiriyoni ematani, iyo yaiva + 5.05% (iyo yapfuura kukosha + 1.93) uye -28.3% (iyo yapfuura kukosha -31.2).Kubva pamaonero edunhu, South China chete ndiyo yakakanganiswa nekunaya kwemvura kwakawedzera, iyo yakadzikira mwedzi nemwedzi, uku North China, Maodzanyemba, Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero, Central China, East China neNortheast China zvese zvakawedzera.Kudiwa kwemapurojekiti makuru ezvivakwa: simende yakananga inopa 2.17 miriyoni matani, + 4.3% sequentially (yapfuura kukosha + 1.5), gore negore -4.8% (yapfuura kukosha -5.5).Kune rimwe divi, zvimwe zviitiko zvemudunhu zvava kuda kuitwa, uye zvirongwa zvezvivakwa zvine mazuva ekupedzisira ari pachena;Ukuwo, nhamba yezvirongwa zvichangotanga yawedzera, uye kudiwa kwezvinhu zvokuvakisa zvemamwe mapurojekiti apedzwa kwakadzoserwa zvekare.Kudiwa kwekuvaka kwedzimba: Iko kongiri yekutakura vhoriyamu ye506 yekusanganisa zviteshi yaive 2.201 miriyoni square metres, + 2.5% vhiki-pa-vhiki (yapfuura kukosha + 1.9), uye -21.5% gore negore (yapfuura kukosha -30.5).Kubva kunharaunda yekuona, nekuda kwekuparara uye kuvakwazve kwezvimwe zviteshi zvekusanganiswa muNorth China, huwandu hwemotokari hunoderedzwa, uye huwandu hwemotokari muSouth China hunoderedzwa mushure mekuwedzera kwemvura, apo pakati peChina, kumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero, Maodzanyemba kwakadziva kumabvazuva, Northwest uye East China anowedzera.Mapoka enguva refu anofadza, kutenga kwakadzika kwakawedzera kwemavhiki matatu.Kubva Nyamavhuvhu 21 kusvika Nyamavhuvhu 27, nzvimbo yese yedzimba dzekutengesa nyowani mumaguta masere akakosha yaive 1,942,300 square metres, kuwedzera kwe4,7% vhiki nevhiki.Munguva imwe cheteyo, nzvimbo yose yekutengeserana kwedzimba dzechipiri (zvibvumirano) mumaguta masere makuru aiva 1.319,800 square metres, kuwedzera kwe6.4% pavhiki-pavhiki.
Kubva pane yazvino kugadzirwa kwezvinhu zvakapedzwa zvemabhizinesi emaindasitiri zvakaburitswa neNational Bureau of Statistics, yakaramba ichidonha, ichidzika kusvika 1.6% muna Chikunguru zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana gore rapfuura, uye zvigadzirwa zvakadonha 0.2% zvichienzaniswa nenguva yakafanana gore rapfuura. ose ari munzvimbo yakaderera munhoroondo.Sub-indasitiri data inoratidza kuti yakakwira-boom yekufambisa midziyo, magetsi emuchina indasitiri, pamwe nekushomeka kwemakomputa kutaurirana, zvigadzirwa zvakajairika uye mamwe maindasitiri zvakaratidza zviratidzo zvekuzadzikiswa, zvichiratidza kuti kudiwa kwezvinhu zvekuvaka kwadonha panguva imwe chete. , kukura kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi kudiwa kwakanyatsogadzirisa gap.Iyi nzira inotarisirwa kuenderera mberi, zvichida munaSeptember, pachava nekusunungurwa kwekudiwa kwepakati.Zvinoenderana nemuenzaniso data yeSsimbi Union ongororo, munaGunyana, kushandiswa kwemazuva ese kwemidziyo muchimiro chesimbi, mota uye mamwe maindasitiri esimbi kwakawedzera ne3.23%, 8.57% uye 8.89% zvichiteerana, uye maindasitiri emidziyo yemumba akadonha. ne 4.07% uye 7.35% maererano.
Chechina, kugoverwa kwesimbi kunosungirwa kuwira munaSeptember.Kune rimwe divi, mamwe mabhizinesi anomanikidzwa kudzikisa kugadzirwa uye kudzoreredza kurasikirwa, mamwe mabhizinesi atanga kuita marongero ekurambidza kugadzirwa, uye kutonga kwezvakatipoteredza kwave kuomarara, izvo zvichaunzawo kumanikidza kuburitswa kwemamwe mabhizinesi.Musi waNyamavhuvhu 15, Ministry of Ecology and Environment, Ministry of Public Security uye Supreme People's Procuratorate vakabatana vakatarisira nyaya gumi neimwe dzeotomatiki yekuongorora data yekunyepedzera kusvibiswa kwezvakatipoteredza nezvikamu zvakakosha zvekuburitsa tsvina.Mhosva gumi neimwe idzi dzakaendeswa nebazi rezvekuchengetedzwa kwezvipenyu kumasangano ezvekuchengetedzwa kweveruzhinji kuti aongorore pamwe nekubata, anosanganisira akawanda emabhizinesi mumatunhu mapfumbamwe, ese ari maviri ezvekuburitsa tsvina uye echitatu-bato rekushanda nekugadzirisa zvikamu.Zvinoenderana nemuenzaniso weongororo data, nhamba diki yemabhizinesi emuenzaniso munaGunyana kugadzirwa kwetambo muna Nyamavhuvhu kana nezve 5% inoderera.
Nekuda kwekunonoka kuitiswa kweiyo kugadzirwa kwekutonga mutemo nesimbi zvigayo nekuda kwezvikonzero zvakasiyana, pahwaro hwegore-pa-gore goho remamiriyoni 17.28 matani muna Ndira kusvika Chikunguru, kanenge 7.5 miriyoni muna Nyamavhuvhu, ndiko kuti, simbi isina kuchena yakawedzera. nematani anosvika 24.78 miriyoni muna Ndira kusvika Nyamavhuvhu.Izvi zvinoreva kuti mumazuva e122 kubva munaGunyana kusvika Zvita, avhareji yezuva inofanira kuburitsa matani asingasviki 203,000, uye avhareji yezuva nezuva crude simbi inogadzirwa kubva munaGunyana kusvika Zvita gore rapfuura imamiriyoni mazana maviri nemakumi mashanu nematatu emadhora, izvo zvinoreva kuti avhareji yemazuva ese kugadzirwa kwesimbi isina kuchena kubva. September kusvika December gore rino haigoni kudarika mamiriyoni 2.451 matani, izvo zvichiri maererano nemigumisiro yeflat control kuverenga.Izvi zvinoreva kuti chiyero chezuva nezuva chesimbi isina kuchena mugore ichaderedzwa nematani 500,000 pahwaro hwazvino.
Nokudaro, kubva pakuona pamusoro apa, mutengo wesimbi unodzoka hauna kuoma.
Kubva pakuona kwemafuta akasvibirira, kunyange pakutanga kwegore, ndakataurawo kuti misika yakapinda mune imwe nhanho yekutengesa kusagadzikana, kunetseka, kusinganzwisisiki uye kusinganzwisisike, ichangobva kuenderera mberi kukwira kwemitengo yesimbi, kunyange zvazvo tichiziva zvimwe zvisingadzivisiki. zvinhu (kushongedza zvinzvimbo zvipfupi, kudzikira kweiyo RMB yekuchinjana, kugadzirwa kwesimbi, kuderera kweore, nezvimwewo), asi zvakadaro kutengeserana kweruzha: Kune rimwe divi, avhareji yemazuva ese simbi yakanyungudutswa yemabhizinesi mazana maviri nemakumi mana nemanomwe yaive yakazara. yakatengeswa, asi yakafuratira chokwadi chekuti avhareji yemazuva ese yenguruve iron kugadzirwa kweBureau of Statistics muna Chikunguru (2.503 miriyoni matani) yakadonha ne63,000 matani kana ichienzaniswa naJune (2.566 miriyoni matani).Kune rumwe rutivi, yakatengesa zvakakwana zvinyorwa zvishoma zvesimbi yesimbi, asi yakafuratira mwedzi yekutanga ye7 yenguruve iron yakangowedzera nemamiriyoni e17.9 mamiriyoni, nepo iron ore inotengeswa kunze kwemamiriyoni emamiriyoni e43.21 uye ore yemumba yakawedzera nemamiriyoni 34.59 (regai. ndoga vanoti nyika simbi ore heventory haisi pasi chaizvo aitonga nhamba zvikuru, simbi chigayo uwandu akadonha nemamiriyoni 9,65 matani);Pamusoro pezvo, yakatengesa zvizere purofiti yemhepo yemugodhi inotengeswa kunze kwenyika, asi yakafuratira purofiti inoenderera uye kunyange kurasikirwa kwemakambani ekugadzira simbi;Mukuwedzera, kutengesa zvizere chokwadi uye zvinotarisirwa zvesimbi zvigayo kwenguva pfupi zvisingaderedze kugadzirwa kana kutodzora kugadzirwa mune ramangwana, asi tichiregeredza kukomba uye kuvimbika kweiyo mbiri yekutonga mutemo.Iye zvino kudzvinyirirwa kwakanyanya kwesimbi uye kudhonza kusina musoro kwemafuta akasvibirira, nekutanga kwepurogiramu yekumhara munaSeptember, kubva pamaonero ekuremekedza musika, vaviri vacho vachaunza kudzoka kwavo kwakanaka, mutengo wemafuta akaomeswa. inongova nyaya yenguva uye rhythm, ukuru, iyo yakareba, iyo inowedzera kusimuka, iyo yakakura nzvimbo yekuderera kweramangwana.
International Steel Association data inoratidza kuti kubva munaJanuary kusvika munaJuly, nguruve yepasi rose yekugadzirwa kwe774 mamiriyoni, kuwedzera kwematani emamiriyoni e17 panguva imwechete gore rakapera remamiriyoni e757, maererano ne1 tani yenguruve iron inoshandiswa ye1.6 toni ye iron ore kuyera, kupfuura nguva imwe cheteyo gore rakapera kushandisa iron ore inosvika mamiriyoni makumi maviri nenomwe ematani.Pakati pavo, China yakabudisa 532 mamiriyoni enguruve iron, kuwedzera kwemamiriyoni makumi maviri nemana kubva ku508 mamiriyoni emamiriyoni panguva imwe chete gore rapera, uye yakadya 38 mamiriyoni akawanda esimbi.Kugadzirwa kwesimbi yakanyungudutswa kune dzimwe nyika kwakaderera nematani mamiriyoni 7 gore negore, uye kushandiswa kwesimbi kwakaderera nematani mamiriyoni 11,2.Inogona kuonekwa kubva kuWSA data iyo yeChina yenguruve iron yakagadzirwa yakawedzera ne 4.7% gore negore, uye kuwedzera kwayo kwakakonzera 140% yekuwedzera kwepasi rose, kureva kuti, kuwedzera kwepasi rose kudiwa kwesimbi kwakabva kuChina. .Nekudaro, maererano nehuwandu hunoenderana, kugadzirwa kwesimbi pasi rose kwakawedzera nematani 63 miriyoni kubva munaNdira kusvika Chikunguru, paine mamwe matani emamiriyoni makumi maviri nemashanu.Kubva pane data rekuona setiraiti, kugadzirwa kwepasirese kwesimbi kwesimbi kunonyanyo kuunganidzwa mumadoko ekunze uye gungwa rekudhonzwa.Steel Union's iron ore division inofungidzira kuti matani anosvika mamirioni gumi nemashanu ematura esimbi akawedzerwa mhiri kwemakungwa.
Zvinogona kuonekwa kuti sampuli uye nhamba yemuenzaniso zvakasiyana, chirevo hachina kufanana, uye mhedziso dzinogona kunge dzakasiyana.Imwe pfungwa ndeyekuti kuita kwenhamba diki yemasampuli mune dzimwe nguva inogona kunge isingaenderane nedata remasampuli ese, ingave maererano negwara rekuchinja, kunyanya maererano neamplitude yekuchinja, iyo inogona kuwanzoita ruzha. kutengeserana, uye kutengeserana uku kazhinji rwendo.Pasina kusvika kumagumo.
Muchidimbu, misika yesimbi munaSeptember, mumamiriro ekuwedzera kwekutanga kwemitemo yakasiyana-siyana uye kushandiswa kwekuedza, mitengo yesimbi inotarisirwa kuunza kudzoka kwechokwadi mushure mokudzokororwa kwepamusoro pakupera kwaAugust.Zvakare, zvinokurudzirwa kuti zvigayo zvesimbi zvinofanira kushingaira kushandisa kutonga kwekuderedza kugadzirwa, kuderedzwa kwekutanga kwekugadzirwa uye kubatsirwa kwekutanga, vatengesi uye zviteshi zvinoramba zvichivharira mune zvimwe zviwanikwa zvinodhura, kushingaira kushandisa ramangwana kana sarudzo yekushandisa arbitrage, kusangana nechepasi. kuyerwa kwezvinhu zvakawanda zvekutanga, wobva wasangana nekukosheswa kwemafuta ekutanga, kana kuunza hwindo renguva riri nani.
Nguva yekutumira: Sep-02-2023