Kana mitengo yesimbi inotarisirwa kuramba ichikwira muna 2023, kudiwa kwekugadzirwa kwesimbi kunofanira kunge kwakakwirira kudarika pakupera kwa2022. Vladimir Zapletin/iStock/Getty Images Plus.
Zvinoenderana neruzhinji rwevakapindura kune yedu yazvino Steel Market Update (SMU) ongororo, mitengo yeplate yakadzikira kana kuti yave pedyo nekudzika.Tiri kuonawo vanhu vakawanda vachifanotaura kuwedzera kwemitengo mumwedzi iri kuuya.
Padanho rinokosha, izvi zvinokonzerwa nekuti tiri kuona kuwedzera kuduku munguva yekufambisa - avhareji yemavhiki e0.5 munguva pfupi yapfuura.Semuyenzaniso, avhareji yenguva yekutungamira yehot rolled coil (HRC) order yaingova pasi pemasvondo mana uye yava mavhiki 4.4 (ona Mufananidzo 1).
Nguva dzekutungamira dzinogona kuve chiratidzo chakakosha chekuchinja kwemitengo.Nguva yekufambisa kwemavhiki e4.4 hairevi kuti mutengo wakakwirira uri kukunda-kukunda, asi kana tikatanga kuona HRC inotungamirira nguva inosvika mavhiki mashanu kusvika matanhatu, mikana yekuwedzera kwemutengo inowedzera zvikuru.
Pamusoro pezvo, zvigayo hazviite kutaurirana mitengo yakaderera pane mavhiki apfuura.Rangarira kuti kwemwedzi yakati wandei, vangangoita vese vagadziri vaive vakagadzirira kuderedzwa kuitira kuti vatore maodha.
Nguva dzekutungamira dzawedzera uye vashoma magiyo vari kuda kuvhara zvibvumirano mushure mekunge mafekitari eUS neCanada azivisa kukwira kwemitengo yemadhora makumi matanhatu patani ($3 zana huremu) svondo mushure meKutenda.Pamusoro pemuonde.Mufananidzo 2 unopa pfupiso yezvinotarisirwa mutengo zvisati zvaitika uye mushure mekuzivisa kwekuwedzera kwemutengo.(Cherechedza: Zvigayo zvepanel zviri kuda kutaurirana nemitengo yakaderera sezvo inotungamira mapaneru anogadzira Nucor akazivisa madhora zana nemakumi mana pamutengo wetani wakatemwa.)
Mafungiro akapatsanurwa pamberi pezvigayo zvazivisa kukwira kwemitengo.Vanenge makumi matanhatu muzana vanotenda kuti mitengo icharamba iri padanho rakafanana.Izvi hazvishamisi.Zvinoshamisa, vangangosvika makumi maviri muzana vanotenda kuti vachapfuura $700/tonne, uye imwe 20% kana zvakadaro vanotarisira kuti vadonhe kusvika kumadhora mazana mashanu / tonne.Izvi zvakandishamisa panguva iyoyo, sezvo $500/tonne yakanga yave pedyo nekupwanya kunyange yechirimwa chakabatanidzwa, kunyanya kana iwe uchinge waita mubairo kune mutengo wekontrakiti.
Kubva ipapo, mhomho ye$700/ton (30%) yakura, paine vangangosvika 12% chete yevakapindura vachitarisira kuti mitengo iite $500/ton kana kuderera mumwedzi miviri.Zvinonakidzawo kuti mamwe mitengo yekufungidzira yakatokwira kupfuura iyo ine hukasha inotarirwa mutengo we700/t yakaziviswa nemamwe magiyo.Mhedzisiro iyi inoita sekunge vari kutarisira imwe denderedzwa rekuwedzera kwemitengo, uye vanotenda kuti kuwedzera uku kuchawedzera.
Isu takaonawo shanduko diki yemitengo panzvimbo dzesevhisi, zvichiratidza kumwe kukonzeresa kwemitengo yefekitari yepamusoro (ona Mufananidzo 3).Panguva imwecheteyo, nhamba yezvivako zvebasa yakawedzera (11%), kuwedzera kwekutengesa mutengo.Mukuwedzera, vashoma (46%) vachaderedza mitengo.
Isu takaona maitiro akafanana muna Nyamavhuvhu naGunyana mushure mekutevedzana kwemitengo yefekitori.Pakupedzisira, vakakundikana.Ichokwadi ndechokuti vhiki haigadziri maitiro.Mumavhiki mashoma anotevera, ndichange ndakatarisisa kuti ndione kana nzvimbo dzebasa dzichiramba dzichiratidza kufarira mukuwedzera kwemitengo.
Zvakare ramba uchifunga kuti manzwiro anogona kuve akakosha mutengo mutyairi munguva pfupi.Takaona kuwedzera kukuru kwe positivity nguva pfupi yadarika.Ona muonde.4.
Pavakabvunzwa kana vaive netarisiro nezve hafu yekutanga ya2023, 73% vaive netariro.Tichifunga kuti chikamu chekutanga chinowanzobatikana, hazvina kujairika kuona tarisiro mugore idzva.Makambani ari kuzadza masheya awo mwaka wekuvaka muchirimo usati wasvika.Mushure mezororo, basa remotokari rakawedzera zvakare.Uyezve, iwe hauchafaniri kunetseka pamusoro pemitero yemasheya pakupera kwegore.
Nekudaro, ini ndaisatarisira kuti vanhu vange vaine tarisiro pamusoro pemisoro yenhau nezvehondo muEurope, mhindu yepamusoro uye kuderera kwehupfumi.Kuzvitsanangura sei?Itarisiro here pamusoro pekushandiswa kwezvivakwa, mitemo yeInflation Reduction Act inokurudzira kuvakwa kwesimbi-inopinza mhepo nemapurazi ezuva, kana chimwewo chinhu?Ndinoda kuziva zvaunofunga.
Chinondinetsa zvishoma ndechekuti hatisi kuona shanduko dzakakosha mukudiwa kwese (ona Mufananidzo 5).Vazhinji (66%) vakati zvinhu zvakagadzikana.Vanhu vazhinji vakati vari kudzika (22%) pane vaikwira (12%).Kana mitengo ikaramba ichikwira, indasitiri yesimbi inofanira kuona kuvandudzwa kwekudiwa.
Netarisiro yese yakatenderedza 2023, chimwe chinhu chinondishamisa ndechekuti nzvimbo dzesevhisi nevagadziri vanobata sei hesiti yavo.Ini ndinofunga kuti zvino ndinogona kutaura kuti 2021 igore rekugadzirisa, 2022 igore rekugadzirisa, uye 2023 igore rekugadzirisa zvakare.Zvingangodaro.Asi hazvisi zvenhamba.Ruzhinji rwevakapindura kuongororo yedu vanoramba vachitaura kuti vari kubata stock, nehuwandu hwakakosha huri kuramba huchidonha.Vashoma chete vakashuma masheya ekuvaka.
Hupfumi hwakasimba hwekugadzira muna 2023 hunoenderana nekuti uye rini patinoona kutenderera kwekugadzirisa.Dai ndaifanira kusarudza chinhu chimwe chete chekutarisa pamusoro pemavhiki mashoma anotevera kunze kwemitengo, nguva dzekutungamira, hurukuro dzefekitori, uye manzwiro emusika, angave emutengi masheya.
Usakanganwa kunyoresa kuTampa Steel Musangano Kukadzi 5-7.Dzidza zvakawanda uye kunyoresa pano: www.tampasteelconference.com/registration.
Tichava nevakuru vakuru kubva kumafekitari muUS, Canada neMexico, pamwe nenyanzvi dzinotungamira musimba, mutemo wekutengeserana uye geopolitics.Ino ndiyo mwaka wepamusoro wevashanyi muFlorida, saka funga nezve kubhuka nekukurumidza sezvinobvira.Pakanga pasina makamuri ehotera akakwana.
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Nguva yekutumira: Feb-15-2023